midweek

[rolltide]

11-3-8 +3.56 YTD (stake 21.19)

Panama vs Honduras
- These teams are very even and in this tourney I'd rate Panama even higher as they don't have many key players in Europe and this is not a FIFA sanctioned event European teams didn't have to allow their players to leave. Honduras overall the more powerful national team, barely, but this is a team fully made up of MLS and local Honduran guys and mising players at Wisla, Wigan, Celtic, Anderlecht, Stoke, and Valencia. Panama have the tournament's two best players in Blas Perez and Rolando Blackburn who each missed sitters in the 0-0 match vs El Salvador. Even full strength there is little separating these two teams as evidenced by their 3-0-3 h2h in past 5 years. Both are in final 8 in WC qualification but this is more of a Honduran B team and Panama shouldn't be underdog.

Panama +0.25 2u to win 1.54u

Nicaragua vs Belize
- I've seen both teams play CR and Guatemala and no doubt Nicaragua are the stronger team. While Guate were just a bit better than Nicaragua they were absolutely dominant over Belize and only a handful of miracle saves by Woodrow Wilson West (yeah, that's his name) saved them a 2+ goal defeat. Now they both will go for 3 points and a place in the final matches and potential Gold Cup spot. H2H shows two recent 1-1 draws and two Nicaraguan wins. Both are teams ok on counter attack and horrible in possession but Nicaragua are a stronger overall club and I think they will get the win. Small bet of course

Nicaragua -0.25 2u to win 1.72

CR vs Guatemala = no idea what to expect. last time these teams played was b2b friendlies in the summer that turned out to be fixed matches. today you have host CR already qualified and Guatemala needing a win desperately but you'd have to think that the only way Guate win is due to an unfair match. They have quite a young team here and despite dominating Belize were unable to score and now sit with 2 bad draws. Guate haven't beaten CR in CR away since 1980 so I expect there will be eyes on the match especially if Guate win.

likely one more later...

 

[rolltide]

Panama 1-1 half bet won ... will play in 5th place game
Nicaragua 1-2 lost ... counter in 92nd as Nicaragua needed to win match as they'd have been KO'd with 1-1 final

 

[rolltide]

Sao Paulo vs Bolivar

The past 15 times a Brazilian team hosted Bolivian opponent they are 15-0-0 57/1 including 2-0, 5-0, 8-0 last year. Bolivar have avoided defeat in just 5 of 20 away games in Libertadores with 10 of those defeats by at least 2 goals. Both teams about the same prep time (SP 1 league match, Bolivar 2 league matches) and SP with a great history when playing Libertadores in the Morumbi. No team outside of Brazil have come here and won in 7 years. Their attack produces a lot of chances but plagued by poor finishing all last year but they only allowed 1/2 goal per game at home in Serie A and boasted the league's best home differential at +27. True David vs Goliath as SP's payroll is more than 50x that of Bolivar with huge names like Ceni, Ganso, Luis Fabiano, Jadson, Aloiso, and Denilson. Obviously with a payroll like they have making group stage is a must and with a trip to La Paz up next getting a big 1st leg lead is important. Bolivar will park the bus as they always do on road but if SP watches the Inter and Santos matches vs Brazilians from last year this game will be over in 1H. Anything but a clean sheet would be a shock so just need three goals for a win and Brazilians avg nearly 4 gpg at home vs Bolivians. Also take into account that Bolivar could only finish 3rd in the Apertura (8 points from #1) and 9th in Clausura 2012 (10 points from #1) and we're not even dealing with their top club.

Sao Paulo -2 goals 4u to win 3u

 

[barclay]

Seems like money coming in on Bolivar. Pinnacle has Sao Paolo posted -2 and -2.5 +123. I will play it for a unit.

Thanks for posting.

 

[rolltide]

big odds move and i'll toss another unit

SP -2 1u to win 1.06u

SP in offensive 4-3-3

 

[rolltide]

SP hits underside of crossbar in 4th minute...please don't be one of THOSE nights

 

[ARUKIDNME]

Nice call on the SP match Roll!

No contest, clearly a mismatch.

 

[rolltide]

thx aru

got the big one in 5-0 for +4.06. one game i like friday but odds probably not avail until fri morning.


thread 2-0-1 +2.83
13-3-9 +6.39 YTD (stake 30.19)

 

[Mutiny]

thx roll for the winner and always appreciate your weekly threads. Hard to believe First Kick for MLS is less than 6 weeks away. Red Bulls still have no coach and I'll be interested to watch and bet against the Chivas train wreck under Chelis.

 

[ARUKIDNME]

thx aru

got the big one in 5-0 for +4.06. one game i like friday but odds probably not avail until fri morning.


thread 2-0-1 +2.83
13-3-9 +6.39 YTD (stake 30.19)

I'm definitely tuning in for that one too. Can't wait.

Great work, I can tell you really spend some time researching and that pays off in the long run.

THX!

 

[rolltide]

thx roll for the winner and always appreciate your weekly threads. Hard to believe First Kick for MLS is less than 6 weeks away. Red Bulls still have no coach and I'll be interested to watch and bet against the Chivas train wreck under Chelis.

yeah really pissed MLS blocked Shea's move to Stoke. ridiculous that a league controls all their players contracts. how doing nothing for the next month vs playing EPL teams is better prep for Shea to be ready for WC Qualifiers is beyond me. After the terrible ROI so far on MLS non-goalies that have been sold to England they're lucky anyone even calls anymore. At least Geoff Cameron is proving that a MLS player can go right into an EPL lineup and contribute

i've circled RBNY as a play against team early...just way too much shake-up from key contributors and team leaders. looking forward to new season but can't say i'm in full mode yet. will post my annual preseason thoughts a week or two before the season. It won't be LA vs HOU part III this year...